US Heating Cost Index 2026–27: what a heating season really costs in 100 cities
Heating-bill rankings already exist. None of them price the part of winter that actually breaks budgets — the mid-season furnace failure. This index models a full heating season including one breakdown for 100 US cities: seasonal energy from real climate and price data, plus a typical furnace repair localized to each metro.
- Worcester, MA is the most expensive city in the index — $3,334 for a heating season with one breakdown. Fuel oil, not cold, puts it on top: 39% of area homes heat with oil.
- New England sweeps the expensive end. Worcester, Boston, Burlington, Manchester, Providence, and Hartford all land in the top nine — a fuel-mix story (oil share 20–39%) more than a climate one.
- The coldest city does not pay the most. Anchorage logs 9,828 heating degree days — far beyond anywhere else — yet ranks third, held down by inexpensive local natural gas.
- A breakdown adds $300–$450 to the season depending on the metro — the layer no existing heating-cost ranking prices in.
- Florida and Hawaii close the table: Miami and Honolulu heat a home for under $100 of energy in a normal winter — the repair risk is nearly the whole heating budget there.
Why this index is different: it prices the breakdown
Rankings of winter heating bills are published every year. But energy is only part of what a heating season costs a homeowner — the other part arrives the night the furnace quits. No public ranking prices that event into the season, so we did: for each city we add the local cost of one typical furnace repair plus a diagnostic service call, adjusted with the Bureau of Economic Analysis regional price parity for that metro, on top of the modeled seasonal energy spend.
The result is a number closer to what winter actually threatens to cost: the season-with-breakdown total. Every input, assumption, and limitation is disclosed in the methodology, and the full dataset is downloadable.
The 100-city ranking
The 15 most expensive heating-season cities, the five least expensive, and the full 100-city table below. Cities in our Kentucky–Tennessee–Alabama service area are marked in gold throughout.
| Rank | City | HDD | Season energy | Typical repair* | Season + breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Worcester, MA | 6,133 | $2,956 | $237 | $3,334 |
| 2 | Boston, MA | 5,748 | $2,625 | $250 | $3,024 |
| 3 | Anchorage, AK | 9,828 | $2,439 | $244 | $2,827 |
| 4 | Burlington, VT | 7,057 | $2,236 | $233 | $2,608 |
| 5 | Manchester, NH | 6,390 | $2,157 | $244 | $2,546 |
| 6 | Providence, RI | 5,516 | $2,165 | $235 | $2,540 |
| 7 | Albany, NY | 6,114 | $2,022 | $230 | $2,389 |
| 8 | Rochester, NY | 6,262 | $2,023 | $224 | $2,381 |
| 9 | Hartford, CT | 5,566 | $1,913 | $237 | $2,292 |
| 10 | Buffalo, NY | 6,242 | $1,828 | $221 | $2,181 |
| 11 | Portland, ME | 4,458 | $1,668 | $235 | $2,043 |
| 12 | Duluth, MN | 8,461 | $1,694 | $205 | $2,021 |
| 13 | New York, NY | 4,954 | $1,591 | $260 | $2,006 |
| 14 | Spokane, WA | 5,916 | $1,630 | $232 | $2,000 |
| 15 | Fargo, ND | 8,446 | $1,659 | $210 | $1,994 |
| 16 | Minneapolis, MN | 7,687 | $1,515 | $242 | $1,901 |
| 17 | Washington, DC | 4,146 | $1,469 | $252 | $1,870 |
| 18 | Green Bay, WI | 7,323 | $1,491 | $215 | $1,834 |
| 19 | Madison, WI | 6,872 | $1,474 | $225 | $1,833 |
| 20 | Baltimore, MD | 4,365 | $1,414 | $241 | $1,799 |
| 21 | Cheyenne, WY | 6,957 | $1,396 | $223 | $1,752 |
| 22 | Denver, CO | 6,232 | $1,362 | $244 | $1,751 |
| 23 | Bismarck, ND | 8,248 | $1,408 | $210 | $1,743 |
| 24 | Milwaukee, WI | 6,763 | $1,385 | $224 | $1,742 |
| 25 | Toledo, OH | 5,804 | $1,403 | $211 | $1,740 |
| 26 | Pittsburgh, PA | 5,231 | $1,378 | $219 | $1,727 |
| 27 | Seattle, WA | 4,674 | $1,301 | $257 | $1,711 |
| 28 | Portland, OR | 4,458 | $1,318 | $244 | $1,707 |
| 29 | Lansing, MI | 6,384 | $1,355 | $219 | $1,705 |
| 30 | Colorado Springs, CO | 6,272 | $1,325 | $233 | $1,696 |
| 31 | San Francisco, CA | 2,829 | $1,257 | $267 | $1,683 |
| 32 | Sioux Falls, SD | 7,104 | $1,342 | $209 | $1,676 |
| 33 | Cleveland, OH | 5,629 | $1,326 | $217 | $1,672 |
| 34 | Columbus, OH | 5,170 | $1,318 | $221 | $1,670 |
| 35 | Philadelphia, PA | 4,528 | $1,281 | $237 | $1,659 |
| 36 | Cincinnati, OH | 4,710 | $1,293 | $220 | $1,645 |
| 37 | Fort Wayne, IN | 5,813 | $1,275 | $214 | $1,617 |
| 38 | Chicago, IL | 6,154 | $1,229 | $239 | $1,610 |
| 39 | Indianapolis, IN | 5,135 | $1,239 | $221 | $1,591 |
| 40 | Grand Rapids, MI | 6,409 | $1,222 | $221 | $1,574 |
| 41 | Des Moines, IA | 6,065 | $1,225 | $212 | $1,563 |
| 42 | Detroit, MI | 6,124 | $1,188 | $232 | $1,558 |
| 43 | Reno, NV | 5,034 | $1,131 | $233 | $1,504 |
| 44 | Kansas City, MO | 4,701 | $1,148 | $214 | $1,489 |
| 45 | Omaha, NE | 5,768 | $1,129 | $212 | $1,467 |
| 46 | Lincoln, NE | 5,485 | $1,129 | $212 | $1,467 |
| 47 | Billings, MT | 6,723 | $1,118 | $216 | $1,463 |
| 48 | Lexington, KY | 4,308 | $1,117 | $215 | $1,459 |
| 49 | Richmond, VA | 3,529 | $1,091 | $226 | $1,451 |
| 50 | St. Louis, MO | 4,441 | $1,098 | $220 | $1,448 |
| 51 | Sacramento, CA | 2,273 | $1,043 | $246 | $1,437 |
| 52 | Louisville, KY | 4,154 | $1,024 | $215 | $1,367 |
| 53 | Salt Lake City, UT | 5,750 | $993 | $233 | $1,364 |
| 54 | San Jose, CA | 2,059 | $955 | $255 | $1,362 |
| 55 | Wichita, KS | 4,122 | $1,030 | $205 | $1,358 |
| 56 | Huntsville, AL | 2,914 | $965 | $215 | $1,308 |
| 57 | Fresno, CA | 2,005 | $930 | $236 | $1,306 |
| 58 | Bowling Green, KY | 3,716 | $969 | $208 | $1,301 |
| 59 | Owensboro, KY | 3,998 | $957 | $205 | $1,283 |
| 60 | Virginia Beach, VA | 2,993 | $903 | $226 | $1,264 |
| 61 | Boise, ID | 5,296 | $843 | $227 | $1,205 |
| 62 | Atlanta, GA | 2,647 | $829 | $231 | $1,198 |
| 63 | Knoxville, TN | 3,408 | $853 | $214 | $1,194 |
| 64 | Nashville, TN | 3,366 | $834 | $223 | $1,189 |
| 65 | Charlotte, NC | 2,946 | $824 | $225 | $1,183 |
| 66 | Raleigh, NC | 2,904 | $821 | $227 | $1,183 |
| 67 | Murfreesboro, TN | 3,204 | $794 | $223 | $1,149 |
| 68 | Greenville, SC | 2,659 | $795 | $215 | $1,138 |
| 69 | Little Rock, AR | 2,820 | $803 | $206 | $1,133 |
| 70 | Tulsa, OK | 3,331 | $789 | $206 | $1,118 |
| 71 | Oklahoma City, OK | 3,207 | $770 | $209 | $1,103 |
| 72 | Birmingham, AL | 2,394 | $750 | $212 | $1,088 |
| 73 | Albuquerque, NM | 3,849 | $693 | $221 | $1,045 |
| 74 | Dallas, TX | 2,038 | $655 | $238 | $1,035 |
| 75 | Columbia, SC | 2,214 | $681 | $216 | $1,026 |
| 76 | Tuscaloosa, AL | 2,152 | $702 | $203 | $1,025 |
| 77 | Fort Worth, TX | 2,009 | $645 | $238 | $1,025 |
| 78 | Memphis, TN | 2,949 | $683 | $213 | $1,022 |
| 79 | San Diego, CA | 1,319 | $608 | $258 | $1,020 |
| 80 | El Paso, TX | 2,251 | $683 | $208 | $1,015 |
| 81 | Los Angeles, CA | 1,126 | $492 | $262 | $911 |
| 82 | Montgomery, AL | 1,837 | $579 | $207 | $910 |
| 83 | Charleston, SC | 1,521 | $474 | $233 | $846 |
| 84 | Austin, TX | 1,458 | $464 | $227 | $825 |
| 85 | Savannah, GA | 1,423 | $454 | $220 | $805 |
| 86 | Las Vegas, NV | 1,878 | $434 | $231 | $803 |
| 87 | Jackson, TN | 2,025 | $470 | $198 | $785 |
| 88 | San Antonio, TX | 1,218 | $397 | $219 | $746 |
| 89 | Tucson, AZ | 1,277 | $388 | $224 | $745 |
| 90 | Mobile, AL | 1,307 | $419 | $204 | $743 |
| 91 | Houston, TX | 1,174 | $372 | $228 | $736 |
| 92 | Phoenix, AZ | 1,085 | $345 | $239 | $726 |
| 93 | Baton Rouge, LA | 1,305 | $353 | $210 | $688 |
| 94 | Jacksonville, FL | 882 | $298 | $230 | $665 |
| 95 | New Orleans, LA | 1,039 | $280 | $214 | $621 |
| 96 | Corpus Christi, TX | 661 | $218 | $214 | $560 |
| 97 | Orlando, FL | 442 | $150 | $234 | $524 |
| 98 | Tampa, FL | 398 | $135 | $233 | $507 |
| 99 | Miami, FL | 71 | $24 | $264 | $445 |
| 100 | Honolulu, HI | 0 | $0 | $256 | $409 |
*Typical furnace repair localized with BEA regional price parity; a service-call fee (also localized) is included in the season total. Gold rows: our KY/TN/AL service cities.
What drives a city to the top of the index
Fuel mix beats climate. Worcester heats 39% of its homes with fuel oil and Hartford 34% — the most expensive common heating fuel — which is why New England owns the top of the table while colder, gas-rich Buffalo (85% natural gas, 6,242 HDD) sits far milder at rank 10. Climate still matters, but only multiplied by price: Anchorage's 9,828 heating degree days meet cheap local gas and land it third instead of first. And local service costs swing the repair layer by about a quarter between the least and most expensive metros.
Gas vs electric: the same winter priced two ways
Holding each city's climate constant, here is the modeled seasonal energy cost if the same reference home ran entirely on natural gas versus entirely on electric heat (at a blended COP of 2.0 — between resistance heat and a modern heat pump). State energy prices decide the winner: in most gas-price markets gas wins clearly, while mild climates shrink the gap to irrelevance. A cold-climate heat pump running above COP 2.5 beats these electric figures — see our heat pump vs furnace comparison.
Where our Kentucky, Tennessee & Alabama service cities land
The 15 metros we route calls in cluster in the middle of the national table — real winters, but gas- and electric-mix fuel economics rather than oil. Kentucky carries the heaviest heating load of the three states (4,154 HDD in Louisville, 4,308 in Lexington), while Alabama's electric-heavy homes make heat-pump health the bigger cost lever there. City pages with local costs, symptoms, and licensed-contractor routing: Louisville · Kentucky statewide.
| Rank | City | HDD | Season + breakdown | Local page |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | Lexington, KY | 4,308 | $1,459 | KY hub |
| 52 | Louisville, KY | 4,154 | $1,367 | Louisville hub |
| 56 | Huntsville, AL | 2,914 | $1,308 | coming soon |
| 58 | Bowling Green, KY | 3,716 | $1,301 | KY hub |
| 59 | Owensboro, KY | 3,998 | $1,283 | KY hub |
| 63 | Knoxville, TN | 3,408 | $1,194 | coming soon |
| 64 | Nashville, TN | 3,366 | $1,189 | coming soon |
| 67 | Murfreesboro, TN | 3,204 | $1,149 | coming soon |
| 72 | Birmingham, AL | 2,394 | $1,088 | coming soon |
| 76 | Tuscaloosa, AL | 2,152 | $1,025 | coming soon |
| 78 | Memphis, TN | 2,949 | $1,022 | coming soon |
| 82 | Montgomery, AL | 1,837 | $910 | coming soon |
| 87 | Jackson, TN | 2,025 | $785 | coming soon |
| 90 | Mobile, AL | 1,307 | $743 | coming soon |
If a furnace in one of these cities quits mid-season, our furnace guide covers Louisville furnace repair costs and the national furnace repair and HVAC repair cost pages carry the baseline numbers this index localizes.
Methodology & sources
- Climate: average annual heating degree days (base 65°F) computed from ten years of daily ERA5 reanalysis temperatures (Open-Meteo archive, 2014–2023) at each city's coordinates.
- Energy prices: EIA residential electricity (¢/kWh) and residential natural gas ($/Mcf), latest annual value by state.
- Fuel mix: Census ACS 2023 5-year, table B25040 (house heating fuel), at the metro (MSA) level: shares of utility gas, electricity, and fuel oil.
- Seasonal energy model: a reference gas home consuming 600 therms of heating at 4,000 HDD, scaled linearly by each city's HDD. Electric heating modeled at a blended COP of 2.0 (between resistance and heat-pump efficiency); fuel oil proxied at 1.35× the gas cost; city cost is the fuel-mix-weighted blend.
- The breakdown layer: national typical furnace repair ($231; corpus baseline from HomeGuide, Angi, and Forbes Home ranges) plus the midpoint service-call fee, both multiplied by the metro's BEA all-items regional price parity (MARPP, latest year).
- Limitations: these are modeled estimates, not utility bills. HDD scaling is linear (real homes are not); prices are state-level (intra-state utilities vary); fuel mix is metro-wide (individual homes differ); the breakdown layer prices one typical repair, and a major failure costs several times more. Rankings are robust to these simplifications; individual dollar figures are indicative.
Download the data · cite the index
Download the full dataset (CSV, 100 cities)
License: CC BY 4.0 — republish figures or data with the credit line “HVAC Service Call — US Heating Cost Index 2026–27” linked to this page. Writing about a specific city? We'll run a custom cut (any metro, any comparison) for your story — email [email protected].
Heating cost questions, answered from the data
How much does it cost to heat a home for a winter in the US?
Across the 100 cities in this index, a modeled heating season ranges from $0 in Honolulu to about $2,956 in Worcester, MA — before any repair. Add one typical furnace breakdown and a service call, and the season spans roughly $409 to $3,334. The national middle of the pack sits near $1,448.
Which US city pays the most to heat a home?
In this index, Worcester, MA tops the ranking at $3,334 for a season with one breakdown — driven less by cold than by fuel mix: about 39% of Worcester-area homes heat with fuel oil, the most expensive common heating fuel, and New England electricity prices push electric-heated homes higher still.
Is it the coldest cities that pay the most?
No — price × climate decides, not climate alone. Anchorage logs 9,828 heating degree days (the most in the index) yet ranks third, because inexpensive local natural gas absorbs the enormous heating load. Buffalo (6,242 HDD, 85% gas) lands mid-teens for the same reason.
What does a mid-winter furnace breakdown add?
A typical furnace repair plus a diagnostic service call adds roughly $300–$450 depending on the metro (national typical repair of $231 and a service-call fee, both adjusted by the BEA regional price parity for each metro). A failed heat exchanger or blower motor can run several times that — see our furnace repair cost guide.
Is gas or electric heating more expensive?
It depends on the state's prices. At current EIA residential rates, straight electric-resistance heat costs more than gas nearly everywhere, but a heat pump (COP well above the 2.0 blended factor modeled here) narrows or flips the gap in mild-winter, low-electricity-price metros.
How is this index calculated?
Heating degree days from ten years of ERA5 daily data (Open-Meteo, 2014–2023), residential energy prices from EIA, fuel mix from Census ACS 2023, and repair costs localized with BEA regional price parities. A reference home using 600 therms at 4,000 HDD is scaled by each city's climate. Full methodology and limitations are published below — these are modeled estimates, not utility bills.
Can I republish this data or the charts?
Yes — the dataset is CC BY 4.0. Download the CSV, cite “HVAC Service Call — US Heating Cost Index 2026–27,” and link to this page. Journalists can request custom cuts for their city at [email protected].